Yes Kerry is an easier candidate than is Dean, but only because he is a Washington insider. He will have to address that perception. I predict that he will, and he will defeat Bush in a landslide. The only three states that Bush will carry are Texas, Florida and Utah, where Donald Duck would be elected if he declared himself a Republican and a gun-owner. Every veteran (like me) will vote for Kerry. But the biggest reason Bush falls will be The Economy, Stupid. The only way Bush can pull this out is if his prediction today of 2.6 million new jobs comes true. The odds of that happening, though, are slim...last year he predicted 1.7 million new jobs, and instead we lost 53,000 for a total of 2.2 million lost jobs during his reign. (http://money.cnn.com/2004/02/09/news/economy/bush_jobs.reut/index.htm?cnn=yes)

Oh my God it gets even better...today Bush's Council of Economic Advisors revised the estimated number of new jobs this year upward to 3.8 million! This article (http://money.cnn.com/2004/02/10/news/economy/jobs_forecast/index.htm?cnn=yes) includes this gem:

"President Bush may need significant job growth to help him get re-elected in November. His father lost a re-election bid because of a jobless recovery in the early 1990's, but the current labor market slump is worse by many measures."

It's for certain Dubya won't be re-elected as our "War President". Notwithstanding his stellar National Guard pay records released today, they mean nothing. As Richard Cohen writes today in the Washington Post (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A27178-2004Feb9.html) service in the National Guard during Vietnam was a joke, just another form of draft-dodging for the privileged elite.