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Do the Math
By Gordon S. Jones
What follows is not to be read as an endorsement or an expression of opposition to any particular candidate, but as a hard-headed handicapping of the race for the Republican Senate nomination next year.
As I considered the race, my gut told me that any reasonable candidate opposing the incumbent, Orrin G. Hatch, would start out with between 25 and 40 percent of the delegates to the nominating convention. This would be a combination of those opposed to OGH on policy grounds, on personal grounds, or on the belief that 30 years in the Senate is plenty.
What I did not see for anyone other than a truly extraordinary personality was any way to grow that (say) 40 percent to the 60 percent needed to avoid a primary. Avoiding a primary for a challenger in this situation is critical because OGH has a warchest and name ID sufficient to crush pretty much anyone in a primary election.
My conclusion: OGH would be the nominee.
But (and as my brother says, a very large “butt” it is), as it turns out, my gut feeling was wrong. I was much too generous. I have since come by some hard numbers produced by a recent survey of existing delegates, and I share them with you, along with what I see to be their inevitable implications.
The survey was performed about a month ago, and as is usual in surveys of this kind, not every delegate was reached. About half were, however, and professional statisticians and psephographers will tell you that a sample of that size produces very high levels of confidence in the results.
What the numbers show is that Anybody But Hatch starts off with only 13 percent (5 percent hard, 8 percent soft), not the 25-40 percent I was willing to assume. OGH, on the other hand, starts off with 72 percent (33 percent hard, 39 percent soft). Another 10 percent responded that it would depend on the opponent, but they can be classed with the ABH faction for purposes of this analysis.
Converting these percentages of the 3,498 delegate universe to numbers yields the following:
577 definitely for Hatch
682 probably for Hatch
subtotal: 1,259
87 definitely against Hatch
140 probably against Hatch
subtotal: 227
Let us now commit murder on scientific analytical principles, and assume that for some mysterious reason the unsampled half of the universe is twice as anti-Orrin as the sampled half. I stress that there is absolutely no reason to make such an assumption, other than a desire to gauge the steepness of the hill ABH has to climb.
That violence to principle produces the following numbers of additional delegates for and against Orrin:
280 definitely for OGH
332 probably for OGH
subtotal: 612
175 definitely against OGH
280 probably against OGH
subtotal: 455
Adding the subtotals and throwing ALL of the “depends” delegates on the side of ABH, we get the following grand totals:
1,871 for OGH
1,629 for ABH
With 3,498 total delegates, 2,100 will be needed to get to 60 percent. These numbers make it absolutely clear that the best ABH can do is force a primary, which OGH will certainly win. The much more likely outcome is a (relatively) easy victory for OGH at the convention.
Of course (you will say) the situation can change: some of the existing delegate pool will elect not to run, or they will fall to organization efforts mounted by a challenger; a particularly persuasive challenger will actually be able to move some of those delegate votes from “probably for” OGH to “definitely against;” OGH may do something stupid.
All that is true.
But the best guide to how someone will vote in the future is how they voted in the past, and these numbers provide no encouragement whatever to anyone thinking of challenging OGH. The idea that there are 500 anti-OGH delegates out there that can be elected at caucuses or persuaded from among returning delegates defies all political experience. The most likely development is that the unsampled half of the universe will come in just about where the sampled half did, and that new delegates elected next March will break down pretty much the same way.
What does that mean? 2,518 for OGH on the first ballot, or 72 percent.
Every political pro in Utah can perform this calculus, and most of them have, though perhaps without the hard numbers given above. What do these numbers mean in terms of fundraising for a challenger? What do they mean in terms of open endorsements by members of the legislature? Have any members of the House publicly endorsed a challenger? And what are such endorsements worth anyway? Ask Marty Stephens.
I’ll tell you someone who can do the math, and that is a very bright Steve Urquhart. Conclusion: he will run for re-election to the State House, or he will switch to the 2d Congressional race, where his party support would be grateful and unanimous, and where he will either win (unlikely) or rack up chits for a future congressional race, perhaps when Utah gets its 4th seat in 2012.
Posted by Editor on August 1, 2005 02:15 PM
