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IRV Strawpoll Update
Over the last few days, our Instant Runoff Voting (IRV) strawpoll of the gubernatorial candidates has garnered a lot of attention. The results are constantly changing, but after the first little while, Huntsman and Stephens were consistently trading off the number 1 and 2 spots. Of course, this is far from scientific and not even representative, but there are some interesting thoughts I had while looking at the details of the rankings.
The first thing that the results tell me is that Huntsman and Stephens have supporters who can be reached by email and the campaign knows how to get them out to show support. Interestingly, so does Richard Mack (L) or at least his supporters. Notice that Mack is third in the number of ballots who rank him No. 1. That’s not because of name recognition—most Utahns I talk to have never heard of him—its because his supporters are electronically mobilazable.
The second thing I find interesting is the distribution of votes. Huntsman and Stephens have large numbers of first, second, and third place votes and then it tails off dramatically. Mack is bimodal. His supporters rank him high and others rank him low. Karras and Herbert are evenly spread. This indicates lack of name recognition and an uncertainty among people taking the poll over what these candidates represent. Fred has almost no first place votes, but he a popular second, third, or fourth choice. Hansen and Walker apparently can’t buy a first place vote.
Notice that Matheson has a big lump at 8 and 9. Its not surprising that in a predominantly Republican state, he’s not doing well in this contest—he has a better chance against one challenger than 13—but what is surprising is that he’s apparently being consistently ranked higher than one or two of the Republican candidates.
Finally, some of these candidates, Gary L. Benson (R), Lawrence Rey Topham (PC), Stone (Stoney) Teiko Fonua (C), have had no first place votes yet. Hellewell was part of that dubious club until this morning when someone finally voted him as their first choice. Certainly Gary, Larry, and Stoney have at least one person who supports them above all others?
Posted by windley on April 9, 2004 01:12 PM
